I don't see the problem. All you need is a learner to map a bit string as long as the total number of contestants, representing the subset who are taking part, to another bit string (with only one bit set) representing the winner, or a ranked list, if you want them all (assuming you have the whole list in your training data). In the latter case you would have a learning-to-rank problem.

If the contestant landscape can change it would help to find a vector space embedding for them so you can use the previous embeddings as an initial guess and rank anyone, even hypothetical, given their vector representation. As the number of users increases the embedding should stabilize and retraining should become less costly. The question is how to find the embedding, of course. If you have a lot of training data, you could probably find a randomized one along with the ranking function. If you don't, you would have to generate the embedding by some algorithm and estimate only the ranking function. I have not faced your problem before so I can't direct you to a particular paper, but the recent NLP literature should give you some inspiration. I still think it is feasible.

I don't see the problem. All you need is a learner to map a bit string as long as the total number of contestants, representing the subset who are taking part, to another bit string (with only one bit set) representing the winner, or a ranked list, if you want them all (assuming you have the whole list in your training data). In the latter case you would have a learning-to-rank problem.

If the contestant landscape can change it would help to find a vector space embedding for them so you can use the previous embeddings as an initial guess and rank anyone, even hypothetical, given their vector representation. As the number of users increases the embedding should stabilize and retraining should become less costly. The question is how to find the embedding, of course. If you have a lot of training data, you could probably find a randomized one along with the ranking function. If you don't, you would have to generate the embedding by some algorithm and estimate only the ranking function. I have not faced your problem before so I can't direct you to a particular paper, but the recent NLP literature should give you some inspiration, e.g. this. I still think it is feasible.

I don't see the problem. All you need is a learner to map a bit string as long as the total number of contestants, representing the subset who are taking part, to another bit string (with only one bit set) representing the winner, or a ranked list, if you want them all (assuming you have the whole list in your training data). In the latter case you would pose it as a learning-to-rank problem.

I don't see the problem. All you need is a learner to map a bit string as long as the total number of contestants, representing the subset who are taking part, to another bit string (with only one bit set) representing the winner, or a ranked list, if you want them all (assuming you have the whole list in your training data). In the latter case you would have a learning-to-rank problem.

If the contestant landscape can change it would help to find a vector space embedding for them so you can use the previous embeddings as an initial guess and rank anyone, even hypothetical, given their vector representation. As the number of users increases the embedding should stabilize and retraining should become less costly. The question is how to find the embedding, of course. If you have a lot of training data, you could probably find a randomized one along with the ranking function. If you don't, you would have to generate the embedding by some algorithm and estimate only the ranking function. I have not faced your problem before so I can't direct you to a particular paper, but the recent NLP literature should give you some inspiration. I still think it is feasible.