Goal - Predict number of days the finished good would be delayed from a promised date of delivery?

Background - It is only 7 weeks before the promised date of delivery that the demand becomes proxy final. Meaning there can be a change in Qty/promised date of delivery/both in the 7 weeks period (run up to promise date of delivery)

Challenge- If my prediction point is (Promised Date of Delivery - 7 weeks). It is likely that some of the feature value might change in the 7 weeks period.

Question - What approach or how do I cater if the following happens after my initial prediction?

  1. Qty changes (new qty < initial qty), after my prediction? - Scenario -I

  2. Promise date of delivery is moved further? Scenario -II

  3. Both the qty changes and promise date of delivery is moved further? Scenario -III

If I have a secondary model for the following scenarios :

a. How would I cater for the 3rd change, will it be catered by my second model?

b. What will be the composition of the training set? Training Set Model I - Initial state of the demand Training Set Model II - Second State of demand +3rd State of demand.. + Nth State of Demand


Do I need a different approach to tackle this problem and what would it be?

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  • 1
    $\begingroup$ You should just do a new prediction with this new/updated data. Of course it depends if you have included this features in the data set yet ? You could include features like nb of changes already done yet ... But please give details about your features and model. $\endgroup$
    – Malo
    Sep 11, 2021 at 9:30
  • $\begingroup$ @Malo - I have added more information to the question, hope this gives more context. I have thought of adding the feature, but not sure if it would be sufficient based on the dynamic nature of the process. $\endgroup$
    – Jas999
    Sep 11, 2021 at 10:57
  • $\begingroup$ @Jon Nordby I had gone through your answer in link . The problem is on the similar lines. I was wondering if you had any advise on the best way to tackle this? Thanks $\endgroup$
    – Jas999
    Sep 11, 2021 at 11:53
  • $\begingroup$ You shoud focus on: * only 1 model: it seems you do not need to have more if proper features are used * more features like: initial quantity, replanned quatity, delta qualtity, initial delay, replanned delay, delay delta, nb of replanning, company/team workload, holidays periods, nb of employees ... * gather data about past real cases $\endgroup$
    – Malo
    Sep 11, 2021 at 13:11
  • $\begingroup$ @Malo Thanks. But what would be my point of prediction in the above process? If I make the prediction seven weeks prior to date, the variables such as replanned quantity, replanned delay would be zero. Are you suggesting to recalculate if there is a change in the feature value and have a fresh prediction? $\endgroup$
    – Jas999
    Sep 11, 2021 at 19:45


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