1
$\begingroup$

I am working on building a time series model, but the dataset I have only has date features for the year; the month and date are not available. What would be a suitable model to use and is it even possible? The dataset is an Excel file from different years I have merged into a single sheet with records for each year arranged in alphabetical order.

enter image description here

$\endgroup$

1 Answer 1

1
$\begingroup$

The first question about applying time-series models is whether you can detect some patterns by yourself or not.

For instance, if you find that the values rise every last week of the month, then you might expect time-series models to be useful.

But if your data is too coarse to extract anything interesting because of external and unpredictable impacts (ex: economic crisis, accident in several stations, etc.) the added value would be too limited.

In addition, you should gather enough data to teach the model patterns. Consequently, if you only have weekly data, you should have at least 3 years (~150 records) to teach the model some patterns due to seasonality and the impact of special events (ex: stock market crash).

You could add some external data like weather or other products associated with your values. This would improve the model prediction quality.

$\endgroup$
5
  • $\begingroup$ Thanks a lot for that input @Nicolas Martin I have over ten years worth of data however I am skeptical about the format the data is in as it is arranged alphabetically and not chronologically with only the features displayed above, would it be possible to create a time series model from this data as It is almost impossible to arrange it in its original chronological order after collection from source, and what model could accommodate for this thanks. $\endgroup$
    – Kev_Dev1
    Oct 7, 2022 at 12:34
  • $\begingroup$ Does it make sense to predict data alphabetically ? If not, you should order your data with a dataframe for example. adamsmith.haus/python/answers/… $\endgroup$ Oct 7, 2022 at 18:13
  • $\begingroup$ Just as I suspected thanks alot for your input @Nicolas Martin $\endgroup$
    – Kev_Dev1
    Oct 10, 2022 at 13:13
  • $\begingroup$ You're welcome @Kev_Dev1. If the answer is valid, could you accept it please? $\endgroup$ Oct 21, 2022 at 7:42
  • $\begingroup$ For sure let me do that. $\endgroup$
    – Kev_Dev1
    Nov 7, 2022 at 0:51

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.