I have a set of data with information about women and their expected delivery dates for childbirth.
I have more columns in the table but for simplicity let's just focus on the below and assume that my table is as follows with hundreds/thousands of rows like the example:
I would like to predict going forward the number of expected deliveries on a given day and also the risk involved in those deliveries.
I feel like there must have been some studies into distributions of deliveries around the due date, maybe it is normally distributed around the due date? Or perhaps it is different and women are more likely to give birth after due date for example.
I am very much in the investigation stage at the moment but wondered if anyone may have some suggestions in for the following questions
How does the distribution look like if it has been investigated/modelled?
How might one apply such a model to the dataset I have? I could implement in Python for instance? Or maybe it doesn't need to be so advanced and it could be done in excel.
How might the output look for such a model - ideally I would like to be able to point to a specific day and say things like - look based on the model we are expecting more deliveries today or more higher risk deliveries, or today looks like it will be less deliveries than yesterday and they will be lower risk.
Any advice or suggestions would be welcome at this stage, thank you.