I am wondering if my logic is OK here or not.
98% of a group without a device has an event occur 2% of group with device has an event occur Since we know that correlation isn't causation I can't say that the device made a difference one way or the other but I am wondering if I can reasonably conclude:
Of the 2% where the device was present and the event occurred... It likely would have occurred in 98% of that group anyway since we have observed that it happens 98% of the time when the device isn't present.
I don't have any data beyond that unfortunately so I am trying to figure out how much it mattered if I assume it mattered - based on the data I have.
If that doesn't extrapolate mathematically, what am I missing?