I have an event "whether an item sold will be returned or not" which I can predict with a certain probability based on information gathered at the time that the purchase occurs (product features, customer information, time and place, etc). So:
P(Return | transaction information) = x% for a specific unit sold
I also have a historical time series of total units sold for that item, and a future forecast of sales of that item over the next few weeks. Assuming I gave the relevant transaction data for each historical sale that occurred, is there away to generate a future forecast from the return probability, so that I can state with some confidence that I will get 15% total returns on the item next week, 10% the week after etc?