I notice that most of my successfully trained CNNs initiate (i.e. first epoch) loss is in the 1-2 range. Typically, these are image classifiers, either for discrete classes (cat, dog, ship, etc) or semantic (pixelwise) segmentation. Occasionally, either because of poor design or architecture misunderstand on my part, I see an initial loss in the 60s; the other day one started at 200 (and didn't converge).
So my question is: is there a heuristic that would allow me to determine a ball park value for my initial loss value? If so, on what aspects of my trained model is it contingent?