I have a set of about ~100,000 training examples. Ratio of positive to negative example is roughly 1:2. The true ratio is more like 1:100 so this represents a major downsampling of the negative class. It is also a very noisy dataset - the examples were automatically generated through distant supervision. Each example represents a set of sentences and has 700 columns. Number of rows may vary from 10 to 100 (maybe even more).
I used a Convolution Neural Network in Tensorflow to train my model (model architecture similar to the one described here) with only 2 epochs and stored the loss, f-score , precision and recall every 10 steps. I evaluated the model on a validation set (which too was generated automatically through distant supervision with negative class downsampling resulting in pos:neg ratio of ~1:2) every 100 steps. Here are the hyperparameters:
batch size: 60 for train, 100 for validation epochs: 2 convolution filter sizes: 700x5, 700x6, 700x7, 700x8, 700x9, 700x10 number of convolution filters per filter size: 125 (so total of 750 filters) dropout: 0.5 l2reg: 0.001 lr: 0.001
I'm seeing some strange behavior with the model and I don't understand why.
My training precision, recall and f-score go over 0.95 in about a 100 steps (6000 examples) and then plateaus. The loss falls down from 0.8 to 0.2 in about 200 steps and then fluctuates between 0.1 and 0.4.
On the validation set my precision, recall and f-score are over 0.95 starting from the first time I evaluate it on the 100th step. Loss fall slightly from 0.3 to 0.2.
When I evaluated on a real-world test set (without downsampling negative class so it has the true ratio of pos:neg), the actual precision and recall were 0.37 and 0.85.
My results are not making any sense to me. I use tensorflow metrics for calculating training precision, recall and fscore and scikit-learn metrics for calculation validation precision, recall and fscore. I can't find anything wrong in the code but I don't understand why I should have such results unless there is a bug. I would have understood having low precision and recall all through - the class imbalance favors the negative class and my set is noisy. However, I am very confused about why I'm having such misleadingly high scores all through..
Given that my dev dataset is also noisy and generated in the same manner as the train set, the dev results might just be useless and it is possible that the model is overfitting the noisy set. But I still don't understand why the scores are so high so soon. Also, if overfitting is the issue, do you think I should make the dropout even higher?