I am trying to predict risk labels of late deliveries for the upcoming 1-2 months based on 3 years of historic delivery data. The target variable is a categorical output based on how many days late a delivery was (on time, 1-2 days late, one week late, more than one week late). Input variables include things like material information, suppliers location & distance to warehouse, # of times delivery was marked as delayed and suppliers monthly quality ratings as well as information on known quality issues registered with supplier over time etc.
So looking at the information above and that I have records per year of around 500.000 delivieries from 300 suppliers I believe random forests would be a good choice to start.
However, I´m thinking it would not capture important time sensitive trends, such as a supplier all of the sudden delivering late while he was reliable the last 3 years. So what is a good way to capture time sensitive trends in RF or should I choose a different algorithm form the time-series domain? Or is there a way to combine multiple approaches?
Thanks for you input!