# Predicting a random variable Y will increase within n minutes if random variable X increases

I am starting to learn machine learning and I would like advice of how to model that random measure Y will increase within n minutes if random measure X increases.

X and Y have different units (GBP and USD) so I am using returns (percentage change) to make them the same unit.

My data looks like this

Time, X, Y
00:00, 1%, 0%
00:01, 0%, 1%
00:02, 2%, 0%
00:03, 0%, 2%


Just from observing this data you can see that Y increases after one second after X increases but not sure the best way how to model this!

• With only this few observations, nothing very general can be drawn. If you can tell that $Y(t) = X(t-1)$ just by having a quick look at your data, this is probably not a machine learning problem. – Romain Reboulleau Oct 12 '18 at 20:43