# Neural Network unable to track training data

I am new to ML and this is my first Tensorflow project. I am doing regression with Neural Networks on a dataset with 17 features and 1 outcome. But for some reason my network is unable to follow the training data. I am getting massive errors in results, as can be seen from the plots below. I have also tried experimenting with different parameters (learning rate, nodes per layer, number of layers etc) but nothing seems to work. I have pasted the Tensorflow code here. I have also provided my cost and training plots as well as a link to my datasets. I'd be grateful if someone could please help me figure out what I am doing wrong. Thank you!

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import tensorflow as tf

# importing features and observations data for training and validation
training_filename_X = "training_set_X.csv"
training_filename_Y = "training_set_Y.csv"
validation_filename_X = "validation_set_X.csv"
test_filename_X = "test_set_X.csv"
test_filename_Y = "test_set_Y.csv"
validation_filename_Y = "validation_set_Y.csv"

# normalizing training data
training_features_stddev_arr = np.std(training_features, axis=0)
training_features_mean_arr = np.mean(training_features, axis=0)
normalized_training_features = (training_features-training_features_mean_arr)/training_features_stddev_arr

# layer parameters
n_nodes_hl1 = 5
n_nodes_hl2 = 5
n_nodes_hl3 = 3
no_features = 17
learning_rate = 0.001
epochs = 2000

cost_history = []

X = tf.placeholder(tf.float32)
Y = tf.placeholder(tf.float32)

# defining weights for each layer taken from a normal distribution with variance 2/n
hl1_weight = tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([no_features, n_nodes_hl1], stddev=np.sqrt(2/no_features)))
hl2_weight = tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([n_nodes_hl1, n_nodes_hl2], stddev=np.sqrt(2/n_nodes_hl1)))
hl3_weight = tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([n_nodes_hl2, n_nodes_hl3], stddev=np.sqrt(2/n_nodes_hl2)))
output_weight = tf.Variable(tf.random_normal([n_nodes_hl3, 1], stddev=np.sqrt(2/n_nodes_hl3)))

# defining biases for each layer
hl1_bias = tf.Variable(tf.random_uniform([n_nodes_hl1], -1.0, 1.0))
hl2_bias = tf.Variable(tf.random_uniform([n_nodes_hl2], -1.0, 1.0))
hl3_bias = tf.Variable(tf.random_uniform([n_nodes_hl3], -1.0, 1.0))
output_bias = tf.Variable(tf.random_uniform([1], -1.0, 1.0))

# defining activation functions for each layer
hl1 = tf.sigmoid(tf.matmul(X, hl1_weight) + hl1_bias)
hl2 = tf.sigmoid(tf.matmul(hl1, hl2_weight) + hl2_bias)
hl3 = tf.sigmoid(tf.matmul(hl2, hl3_weight) + hl3_bias)
output = tf.matmul(hl3, output_weight) + output_bias

# using mean squared error cost function
cost  = tf.reduce_mean(tf.square(output - Y))

init = tf.global_variables_initializer()

# running the network
with tf.Session() as sess:
sess.run(init)

for step in np.arange(epochs):
sess.run(optimizer, feed_dict={X:normalized_training_features, Y:training_observations})
#        print (sess.run(cost, feed_dict={X:normalized_training_features, Y:training_observations}))
cost_history.append(sess.run(cost,feed_dict={X:normalized_training_features, Y:training_observations}))

pred_y = sess.run(output, feed_dict={X:normalized_training_features})

plt.plot(range(len(cost_history)), cost_history)

• Are they of the same scale? Also change your hidden layer neurons, your LR by *10 and epoch/10.. and report back.. – Aditya Jul 25 '18 at 1:09
• @Aditya I changed the LR and epoch (LR = 0.01, epoch = 200) as you suggested in the above code. It still gives the same plots for prediction. – user53799 Jul 25 '18 at 2:40
• @Aditya Also if you look at the data (google drive link provided), the features are of different scales but I have done feature scaling (normalizing training data) in the above code. Please let me know if the procedure I followed for normalization is not correct. Thanks! – user53799 Jul 25 '18 at 2:43
• Why in the world are you using squred error cost for sigmoid activation? – DuttaA Jul 25 '18 at 4:48
• @DuttaA Sorry, I am very new to the field of ML and my concepts aren't great right now. I thought the two could be used together. Also something similar was suggested here - stackoverflow.com/questions/34229140/… Please correct me if I am wrong. Thank you! – user53799 Jul 25 '18 at 5:00