I'm following this tutorial here to build an ARIMA model in R.
I've done a Forecast using a fitted model in R. I specified the forecast horizon h periods ahead for predictions to be made and used the fitted model to generate those predictions. Then I plotted them to see the results and this is what I got:
The light blue line above is supposed to show the fit provided by the model.
In the Tutorial this is what they got (their Dataset is different from mine):
In their case it is clear in contrast with mine. Can somebody provide me with an explanation regarding the graph that I got. Does it make any sense? Does it tell something or is what I got completely wrong (knowing that I followed the tutorial as it is)?
Any insights would be much appreciated.
Here's my code :
#Removing Outliers count_ts = ts(df[, c('qty')]) df$clean_qty = tsclean(count_ts) df$cnt_ma = ma(df$clean_qty, order=7) # using the clean count with no outliers df$cnt_ma30 = ma(df$clean_qty, order=30) #Data Decomposition count_ma = ts(na.omit(df$cnt_ma), frequency=30) decomp = stl(count_ma, s.window="periodic") deseasonal_cnt <- seasadj(decomp) fit2 = arima(deseasonal_cnt, order=c(1,1,7)) fcast <- forecast(fit2, h=30) plot(fcast)