# How to interpret the graph representing the fit provided by the ARIMA model?

I'm following this tutorial here to build an ARIMA model in R.

I've done a Forecast using a fitted model in R. I specified the forecast horizon h periods ahead for predictions to be made and used the fitted model to generate those predictions. Then I plotted them to see the results and this is what I got:

The light blue line above is supposed to show the fit provided by the model.

In the Tutorial this is what they got (their Dataset is different from mine):

In their case it is clear in contrast with mine. Can somebody provide me with an explanation regarding the graph that I got. Does it make any sense? Does it tell something or is what I got completely wrong (knowing that I followed the tutorial as it is)?

Any insights would be much appreciated.

Thank you.

Here's my code :

  #Removing Outliers

count_ts = ts(df[, c('qty')])

df$clean_qty = tsclean(count_ts) df$$cnt_ma = ma(df$$clean_qty, order=7) # using the clean count with no outliers df$$cnt_ma30 = ma(df$$clean_qty, order=30) #Data Decomposition count_ma = ts(na.omit(df$cnt_ma), frequency=30)
decomp = stl(count_ma, s.window="periodic")
deseasonal_cnt <- seasadj(decomp)

fit2 = arima(deseasonal_cnt, order=c(1,1,7))
fcast <- forecast(fit2, h=30)
plot(fcast)

• Could you please share your code? Jun 5, 2019 at 13:06
• @Leevo , just added it , thank you.
– ilni
Jun 5, 2019 at 14:36