# How could I improve my FB Prophet forecast?

I've got 1325 days of revenue data and when plotting the components it makes 100% sense from a domain expert point of view, so the model is capturing the variations quite well (or it seems it does...). I've added the country holidays using m.add_country_holidays(country_name='GB')

However, when it comes to accuracy I'm getting the following averages:

MAPE: 0.3
MAE: 721,415


721,415 is not an acceptable error. Around 100K would be.

These are the MAE and MAPE plots:

Time-series plot:

Performance metrics (first 20):

What else can I do to improve the accuracy of this model? Thank you

• It might be helpful to outline the process you've followed so far - e.g. what are you trying to predict, any transformations applied to the target, and the model parameterisation. Nov 20, 2019 at 12:07
• I haven't applied any transformation to the target or modified any parameter. Prophet model is quite straightforward and automatic. It only needs 2 columns, date and number, which, in my case are revenue figures. Nov 20, 2019 at 14:03
• Can you include a plot of the time-series data and the predictions made by your model? Nov 20, 2019 at 14:27
• Your target looks very noisy - it seems to fluctuate between 1m and 5m. Maybe you should consider applying some sort of transformation. There also seem to be massive downward spikes (2017, 2018, 2019)... have you taken a look at these in any detail? Nov 20, 2019 at 16:14
• I would start with something like the log (base of your choice, 10 or e is common). I would also consider removing the Christmas data and treating it separately - it looks to be an outlier and is likely distorting the modelling. Nov 21, 2019 at 9:17