I have just learned Markov Chains which I am using to model a real world problem. The model comprises 3 states
[a b c]. For now I am collection data and calculating transitional probabilities:-
T[a][b] = #transitions from a to b / #total transitions to a
However I am stuck at determining the correct Transition Matrix. As I am getting more data, the matrix is changing drastically. So when do I finalize Transition Matrix? Does that mean that my data is too random and cannot be modelled or I am doing some mistake here?