I am working since some months on a prediction from lead to a sale. Someone makes a lead on my website and I want to predict if this user will make a sale. I have these metrics on the test data.
Now when I check for example for the month May_2020 all the leads I had predicted as 1 (probability >=0.5) and compare with the real sales I receive a conversion rate of 22%. That means, only 22% of all the predicted with 1 lead becomes sale. What do you think?
- Is this caused because of low precision? The precision is similar to the conversion rate or is this only luck or the precision implicates the conversion rate.
- Any idea of how to reduce this big error of 78%?