Questions tagged [arima]

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13 views

Understanding lag plot ,ACF plot and auto-correlation plots

I have a data-frame of 2809 rows which is an unevenly spaced time-series ...
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0answers
16 views

Arima model aic continuously decreasing with value of m

In this figure, i am doing time series forecasting with arima model, where it can be clearly seen there is a seasonality of 2 years, so the value of m should be 104 for the better prediction as the ...
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0answers
46 views

ARIMA: How to understand performance of the model?

I am new to use of ARIMA model and after working on it for a couple of days and doing research - I'm not sure how to interpret the performance of my model... Here is what the ...
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12 views

How far I can apply ARIMA forecast algorithm to my model?

I created a ARIMA model with 1224 month wise data (102 years - From Jan 1900 to Dec 2002), totalling to 1224 data items. How far I can forecast. Typically i got some pattern in forecast only for 36 ...
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1answer
24 views

Choosing the periodicity in a SARIMA model

Given the order (P,D,Q,s) of a SARIMA model, s is an integer representing the number of periods in a season. Intuitively, I suppose it would be 12 for monthly data ...
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9 views

From stationary value to original value

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1answer
23 views

Why is my prediction using ARIMA better if I'm using less historic data?

I have a data set containing hourly electricity prices for since 1.01.19 until September. Since the process turned out to be (weakly) stationary, I applied an ARIMA model in Python in order to predict ...
4
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1answer
593 views

Forecasting via LSTM or XGBoost… is it really a forecast or

I guess I understand the idea of predictions made via LSTM or XGBoost models, but want to reach out to the community to confirm my thoughts. This tutorial does a nice job explaining step by step of ...
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1answer
1k views

XGBoost vs ARIMA for Time Series analysis

Doing time series analysis, I have doubts on choosing the right model. I want to predict the next 30 mins window, from the input dataset which contains the no. of error count for that particular 1 min ...
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1answer
26 views

How to measure/rate the effect of a exogenous covariate in a ARIMAX Model?

I have an ARIMA model, I'm trying to figure out how much an external variable (exogenous covariate) could improve the forecast, so I need to "synthesize" a rate that tell me the usefulness (or impact) ...
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0answers
29 views

How SARIMA predictions works

I am doing practice on SFO air traffic dataset and trying to forecast air traffic for 48 months ahead using SARIMA. The optimal SARIMA parameters are order=(2,1,2) and seasonal_order=(0,1,2,12), ...
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1answer
329 views

Categorical variable for Arima

Does Arima support the usage of categorical variable? Some ways to get it working can be using one-hot encoding to represent categorical variables, but I am not sure how good it is.
1
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1answer
236 views

Why MA model order is from acf but not pacf

For MA model in Arima, why the order references acf, but not pacf? The emphasize is why not PACF. In https://towardsdatascience.com/significance-of-acf-and-pacf-plots-in-time-series-analysis-...