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Questions tagged [predictive-modeling]

Statistical techniques used for predicting outcomes.

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8
votes
2answers
2k views

Machine Learning Steps

Which of the below set of steps options is the correct one when creating a predictive model? Option 1: First eliminate the most obviously bad predictors, and preprocess the remaining if needed, then ...
2
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4answers
2k views

Scikit Learn Missing Data - Categorical values

I have a dataset containing categorical features, which has 4 labels, and 4 features. (It is a meta classifier, so outputs from base classifier serve as input into this classifier) ...
49
votes
8answers
10k views

Why Is Overfitting Bad in Machine Learning?

Logic often states that by overfitting a model, its capacity to generalize is limited, though this might only mean that overfitting stops a model from improving after a certain complexity. Does ...
8
votes
2answers
6k views

How to train model to predict events 30 minutes prior, from multi-dimensionnal timeseries

Experts in my field are capable of predicting the likelyhood an event (binary spike in yellow) 30 minutes before it occurs. Frequency here is 1 sec, this view represents a few hours worth of data, i ...
8
votes
3answers
9k views

Is feature selection necessary?

I would like to run some machine learning model like random forest, gradient boosting, or SVM on my dataset. There are more than 200 predictor variables in my dataset and my target classes are a ...
5
votes
1answer
3k views

Predictive modeling based on RFM scoring indicators

RFM - is a ranking model when all customers are ranked according to their purchasing F requency, R recency and M monetary value. This indicator is highly used by marketing departments of various ...
26
votes
4answers
23k views

Should a model be re-trained if new observations are available?

So, I have not been able to find any literature on this subject but it seems like something worth giving a thought: What are the best practices in model training and optimization if new observations ...
14
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3answers
584 views

Why are ensembles so unreasonably effective

It seems to have become axiomatic that an ensemble of learners leads to the best possible model results - and it is becoming far rarer, for example, for single models to win competitions such as ...
11
votes
4answers
17k views

How to avoid overfitting in random forest?

I want to avoid overfitting in random forest. In this regard, I intend to use mtry, nodesize, and maxnodes etc. Could you please help me choose values for these parameters? I am using R. Also, if ...
5
votes
1answer
3k views

Predictive analysis of rare events

I'm trying to predict rare events, meaning less than 1% of positive cases. I basically try to predict if a subject will have 0, 1, 2 ... , 6, > 6 failures (there are cases in all those categories). I'...
7
votes
2answers
15k views

How to interpret a decision tree correctly?

I'm trying to work out if I'm correctly interpreting a decision tree found online. The dependent variable of this decision tree is Credit Rating which has two classes, Bad or Good. The root of this ...
3
votes
2answers
7k views

Xgboost predict probabilities

When using the python / sklearn API of xgboost are the probabilities obtained via the predict_proba method "real probabilities" or do I have to use ...
10
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3answers
1k views

Can regression trees predict continuously?

Suppose I have a smooth function like $f(x, y) = x^2+y^2$. I have a training set $D \subsetneq \{((x, y), f(x,y)) | (x,y) \in \mathbb{R}^2\}$ and, of course, I don't know $f$ although I can evaluate $...
2
votes
1answer
119 views

ML - Service Desk classification

I'm trying to explore an use-case in ML but stuck at a point. May i please request your advise please. Have a service desk web application for logging tickets, which is essentially a form having ...
7
votes
2answers
8k views

How to use Cohen's Kappa as the evaluation metric in GridSearchCV in Scikit Learn?

I have class imbalance in the ratio 1:15 i.e. very low event rate. So to select tuning parameters of GBM in scikit learn I want to use Kappa instead of F1 score. My understanding is Kappa is a better ...
2
votes
1answer
436 views

How to perform model selection for One-Class Classification?

Consistency based model selection does not perform well for many datasets for One-Class Classification (OCC). So I am looking for some other model selection criteria. Since, only one class of data (...
2
votes
1answer
6k views

Keras Conv1D for simple data target prediction

I am trying to use conv1D layer from Keras for predicting Species in iris dataset (which has 4 numeric features and one categorical target). Following is my code: ...
2
votes
2answers
94 views

Is there any standard pattern recognition algorithm in predicting an item which a user will be buying next, given I have the history of the purchases

I am having a list of 10 different items a user has bought in the past. Each item has been bought multiple times. I would like to find a pattern in which the user buys a particular item and predict ...
1
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1answer
1k views

Anomaly detection in Time Series Data - Help Required [closed]

I am looking for algorithms on Anomaly detection for time series data. It is uni-variate analysis, considering single parameter (inlet pressure) of air compressor sensor data. The objective is to ...
1
vote
1answer
78 views

Machine Learning for user modelling

I have a dataset where each row is a interaction of a user with a content. I have user's features to represent the user (each user is uniquely represented through user.id): ...
3
votes
1answer
4k views

Choosing a model for dataset with categorical variables [closed]

I have a question about the type of model which I should use for a dataset I have. The dataset has a total of 7 independent variables and 1 dependent variable which I need to predict. Out of the 7 ...
3
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2answers
13k views

Time series forecast using SVM?

I have a pandas data frame like this: ...
3
votes
1answer
87 views

How to make machine learning specifically for an individual in a group when we have the data on the group?

Lets specify the question with the help of the figure below: We know that one part of the behaviour (our target Y) will depend on common parameters (for the group). It is represented by the grey zone ...
2
votes
1answer
589 views

Is there an R package which uses neural networks to explicitly model count data?

Ripley's nnet package, for example, allows you to model count data using a multi nomial setting but is there a package which preserves the complete information relating to a count? For example, ...
2
votes
1answer
42 views

How to predict based on multiple samples?

I am relatively new to ML so I apologies in advance if my question shows lack of understating of the field. The problem A particular study course has a high drop-out rate and we want to reduce it. ...
2
votes
2answers
4k views

How to predict customer's next purchase

Suppose we want to predict what customer will buy during his next visit to the Electronic Shop based on his past purchase history. I know that it is a very broad question, but I am new to machine ...