Questions tagged [predictive-modeling]

Statistical techniques used for predicting outcomes.

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10 views

Product Prediction to group of customers

I have multiple groups of customer, say for segment 1 as shown in the pictures, I have a list of products that I can choose the cross-sell to that group. Consider ...
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27 views

What is the interpretation for quadratic functions?

I am working through the book Applied Predictive Modeling and came across something that was a bit confusing. It discussed adding non linearity to a model to improve its fit - I get this part. For ...
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1answer
43 views

How to apply a trained Random Forest model to a new data set in R?

So I have a data set that is essentially football players statistics in 2017 and 2018. I have trained my model to use the 2017 data to predict the 2018 number of touchdowns. My code is below: ...
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Reducing the dimensions of data who's predominant categorical feature, its layer, has depths that overlaps with other samples layer values

I am working with a data set of soil types with multiple layers of varying depths and sizes with multiple features. There are $1-9$ layers each with differing dimensions, for example, a soil type ...
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2answers
186 views

Why is r squared lowered when adding polynomial features?

I am trying to find a best fit line f(x) = ? for a random set of x,y coordinates. Linear Regression with polynomial features works well for around 10 different ...
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1answer
35 views

How to predict based on multiple samples?

I am relatively new to ML so I apologies in advance if my question shows lack of understating of the field. The problem A particular study course has a high drop-out rate and we want to reduce it. ...
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What is the use of detectors in Negative Selection Algorithm?

I understand the main idea of Negative Selection Algorithm is basically derived from the artificial immune systems of what determines something to be self and non-self, and that the algorithm revolves ...
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2answers
45 views

Is there any time series model which handles data at variable frequencies.?

Goal: Predict the yellow points.(yellow events appear at varying frequencies) But I'm struggling to find a good model to fit this use case. Most of the time series algorithms are handling data which ...
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Build model to get daily probability of meeting a certain end of period goal

I was hoping for some consultation and direction with how to go about the following: To give context, I work for an agency that manages advertisements on social media for general motors - ...
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8 views

What is forecast horizon measured in?

I am using Microsoft Azure machine learning platform and when using the forecast feature it gives me the field of forecast horizon that uses an integer. Does the integer mean days, weeks, years, etc. ...
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1answer
58 views

Predicting future automobile sales

I am new to Machine Learning. Recently I am trying to build a model to predict the sales of a particular automobile make and model of a dealership and to which location. The data given to me has ...
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40 views

Machine learning model for determining whether a transaction is cheap, fair, or expensive,

I am currently working on a final project related to data science and would like some advice. I have a second hand bike selling data set that consists of around 100,000 observations with the ...
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Out of stock / Spike in demand prediction

The goal is to predict out-of-stock situations, either quantitatively (the gap) or qualitatively (out-of-stock likely to happen in next few weeks). Background: We have existing demand planning ...
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1answer
32 views

Using predicted probabilities and bayesian inference to update beliefs

I'm currently working on a project to predict the likelihood of an outcome. I'd like to implement a system where the belief the event will happen is updated after running the model on new data. ...
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1answer
17 views

Data Structure For Multilevel Analysis

I am little confused about how to structure my specific data for multilevel analysis. I have 10 categories and each category has some items in them. The dataset is available for 117 weeks. There is ...
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1answer
83 views

Is there a Feature selection process for ARIMA model?

I have a dataset representing sales per day for certain products. It contains 30000 observations and 6 features (target included). Since my task is to make a prediction about the number of pieces sold,...
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0answers
33 views

Target Variable Encoding for Time Series Change point detection

I am working on a time series data for which I intend to impliment machine learning model for detecting change point in time series data. This data is recorded fom machinary and we have to predict ...
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1answer
21 views

How to distinguish between normal fluctuation and outliers in ARIMA model?

I have a dataset about sales per day of certain products at the ITEM/DAY/STORE level , I've plotted the series and visually examined it for any outliers, volatility, or irregularities. And this is ...
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In which predictive tasks are the ARIMA model useful?

I'm working on a project where I have to predict the total quantities sold at the ITEM/DAY level. As a model, I thought of using an ARIMA (I'm using R), but I wanted to get a confirmation of whether ...
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24 views

Different sensitivity analysis

I have a metabolic model written in python and I would like to do a Bayesian sensitivity analysis on it to see which parameter affects it the most. Is MCMC sensitivity analysis the same as Bayesian? ...
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1answer
33 views

Relating two data sets at the row level where table one may correlate to zero or more rows in another

I'm just looking for some high level recommendations on libraries, design patterns, or algorithms here. I obviously don't expect you to build a model for me. I would like to predict the monetary ...
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16 views

Choosing predictive model for dataset

have a question about the type of model which I should use for a dataset I have. I have use 2 data-sets for my project. After hypothesis testing, I me Out of the 7 input variables, 6 of them are ...
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22 views

Choosing loss function in Keras for prediction binary_crossentropy or categorical_crossentropy

What loss function in keras should I chose for binary_crossentropy or categorical_crossentropy? I have data like : $w1,w2,w3,w2,w2,w1,w3,w5,w9,w5,w4...$ I want to predict sequence: input: $w1,w2,w3$...
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29 views

Choice of method for classification and/or duration prediction

Let's consider an e-commerce problem. I have data about users that almost place an order online : they give some information about themselves (name, age, etc.), but won't immediately validate the ...
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1answer
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About 1M rows of data. Should I restrict myself to few columns as well?

I'm trying to build a predictive model from about 1 million rows of data. My goal is to predict a certain numerical value. I have the intuition that I should use very few numerical binary columns so ...
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1answer
47 views

Next year forecasting with monthly data from many, correlated, non-monotonic trends

I have trend data from many health departments in a local territory (eg. cardiology, orthopedics, etc...). These trends represent health service (visits, diagnostic, admissions) production, service ...
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1answer
34 views

Transfer learning for a regression problem

if my understanding is correct, in case of image classification and NLP, if I have a pre-trained model, to train on new data, I can reshape the data according to the pre-trained model. So there is no ...
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36 views

Predict vs. Impute: Filling missing data using Random Forest

I am using R package randomForest to build a Random Forest model for classification. Ultimately, I need to choose one of five programs for a group of individuals ...
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26 views

What should I check if model accuracy is no better than baseline level(random guess)

I have a data with only 8 columns: id created_time employee_id rank position hourly price num_work_completed work_category hired Hired is the target variable with 1 representing hired and 0 ...
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1answer
95 views

Why does Naive Forecast,Moving average,Simple Exponential Smothing model predictions flatten?

I have applied simple forecasting models such as Naive Forecast, Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holts Linear Trend Model on 2018 sales data of a salesperson. All the model resulted in ...
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9 views

Manual setting of target variable based on features' minimum values: f1 score = 1

I am building a classifier for user engagement in my website. Basically, since there are no "proxy" for engagement, i.e. there is no pre-defined target variable, I came up with minimum thresholds ...
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11 views

NLP Model to predict HTML missing attributes based on Word Embedding

I am trying to build a model "doc2vec" which predicts the missed attributes (id, name) of the tag in HTML depending on the text or code around. Is that possible in doc2vec? If so, how to do it ...
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35 views

How do I avoid time leakage in my KNN model?

I am building a KNN model to predict housing prices. I'll go through my data and my model and then my problem. Data - ...
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19 views

if a time series is not stationary at a weekly level, is it also not stationary at quarterly level?

I have time series of sales of many products on weekly level for 2 years. I am interested in forecasting the sales on quarterly (4-months) level for every product. I also have some exogenous ...
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Error-analysis and evaluation of a model using Python?

My method of evaluating a model is the following : Split the training data set and do cross validation to obtain an accuracy of my model on my cross validation data set. Use the parameters that gave ...
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1answer
38 views

Logistic Regression - ROC curve plots Sensitivity vs Specificity instead of (1-Specificity)

I am new to Machine Learning and have been doing some practice on Logistic Regression. To evaluate the models, I've been trying to create some ROC plots. The package that i used is pROC. The model ...
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25 views

What is the name of the prediction method?

Suppose, I have a data set: ix m_t1 m_t2 1 42 84 2 12 12 3 100 50 then, we can calculate the difference between ...
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1answer
30 views

Impact calculation- Regression

I am dealing with the below data: \begin{array} {|c|c|}\hline \text{user} & \text{A_PDE} & \text{B_PDE} & \text{C_PDE} & \text{D_PDE} & \text{Sales} & y_\text{pred} & \text{...
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1answer
24 views

Comparing different classification results with different trainig and test data

I have different samples with different sizes. The instances of each sample have different features in comparison to the instances from the other samples. For each sample i train my model and tested ...
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3answers
193 views

What predictive model to use to impute Gender?

My data looks like this: birth_date has 634,990 missing values gender has 328,849 missing values Both of these are a ...
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48 views

Time series - is it necessary to retrain the model when new time series data is present

Say you're building a sales prediction model to predict tomorrow's sales value, as well as the next 2 weeks of daily sales. The model is being trained using daily data for the previous 1.5 years, and ...
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How to develop this type of neural network? [closed]

I was given this task to develop, this type of neural network but I never done speech recognition and that type of recognition in Matlab, so could anyone please help and give some help about this task....
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1answer
28 views

In which CRAN mirror is the quadprog package available?

I was trying to find the accuracy of some predicted data and I came to know that I can use the forecast package to do this. When I installed it and gave library(forecast), it said it needs quadprog ...
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1answer
16 views

Accuracy function in R language [closed]

I would like to find the accuracy of predicted data. Which package in R can I use that has the accuracy function?
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1answer
27 views

Dataset about flash floods

Where I can find spatial dataset about Flash floods with a set of parameters highly contributing to flash floods occurrence such as precipitation and DEM ?
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36 views

Prediction interval for general non-linear regression

I have been working on a predictive model. With each prediction, we need to provide a score to express the confidence about our prediction. So I am looking at prediction interval (PI). In linear ...
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13 views

Correct use of model interpretability

I am working on a spam classifier with ~26 features where most of these features are of categorical type and only few of them numerical. I have built 3 models with random forest, gradient boosting and ...
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16 views

Predicting U.S. suicide count based on a set of inputs

I'm trying to design a model (or multiple) that can predict the number of U.S. suicides for a future year, based on a few inputs--"age", "sex", "population" (of the age/sex), and "gdp_per_year". I'm ...
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1answer
41 views

Predicting what time will a John go to the gym tomorrow?

I have a data set which contains the below columns: ...
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117 views

What is the best algorithm/solution for predicting the following?

I have a dataset that comprises 76 countries, and 6 columns of distinct quantitative variables, which are the mean values of that variable relative to each country: If I were to take a random sample ...