Questions tagged [probabilistic-programming]

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How to make model for Multivariate timeseries using tensorflow probability structural model?

I have done modelling for Univariate timeseries but while using multivariate time series ( independent features) not able to ...
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9 views

How to estimate claims for warranty analytics where continuous improvement reduces warranty claims?

I have a situation where a company who has warranty claims on its product and they want to know that is it possible for them to extend that. Now the case is that they do improvement on the existing ...
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19 views

Is it possible to train probabilistic model to return several distributions?

I have nonlinear data of function y(x), which is let's say parabolic. At some points of x there are several y's (look at the picture). Is it possible to train a probabilistic model to return several ...
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10 views

How to get quantiles/probabilities of time series forecasts?

my problem is as follows : I am creating demand forecasts for some goods with different methods (ARIMA, ETS,..) The issue is that I would like to forecast the probabilities of those forecasts since ...
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14 views

Finding optimal region of a continuous search space

I'm working on a problem in which I've got large table of data with two features and three target columns and I need to find the optimal filter parameters which theoretically would give me: 1) most ...
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27 views

Bayes posteriograms

My main objective is to predict the posterior probability of an individual belonging to one of the classes, using Bayes theorem. The information I have is: value of the data point mean and stdev of ...
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0answers
434 views

Bayes net inference in Pyro

I am familiar with Bayes nets (discrete/continuous/hybrid). I recently started to learn basics of Pyro and tried to model simple Bayes nets as Pyro programs. I also noticed the simple example answered ...
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1answer
98 views

Layman's description of PDF and CDF [closed]

Can anyone please explain what a PDF and CDF are in simple words. (Please don't define it from wiki.)
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1answer
17 views

the probability distribution of dependent variables

There are three variables, X3 is a function of X1 and X2, ...
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1answer
283 views

What's the difference between probabilistic programming such as pyro and belief networks?

I heard about ubers pyro and stumbled upon this Wikipedia article. As I understand, a bayesian network is the same as a belief network according to this post. Does someone know how these are related?...
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218 views

Laplacian smoothing on Class Probability (Naive bayes)

I am implementing a Naive Bayes classifier in Python from scratch. The instructions I have asks that I incorporate Laplacian Smoothing with K=1 to computing the probability that a message belongs to a ...
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1answer
25 views

What is the quantity sold for a specific fruit & country combination?

What is the algorithm that generates these potential quantities that meet the given criteria? Essentially - there are number of quantities for a fruit and country combination. E.g: ...
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1answer
280 views

How to generate a sample from a generative model like a Restricted Boltzmann Machine?

I am learning about the Boltzmann machine. So far, I have successfully written a code that can learn the coefficients of the energy function of a Restricted Boltzmann Machine. Now, since my model is ...
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1answer
540 views

PyMC3 do not converge

I'm trying to run a simple logistic regression on PyMC3. Here the code: ...