Questions tagged [probability]

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true.

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I need help to write an essay about: probabilistic method || Occam's razor || mathematics in the 21st

I am interested in one of the master's programs in Data Science. In the application process I need to submit an essay of 1,000 words about one of the following topics: Drawbacks of the probabilistic ...
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Cosine Similarity: Works with TF-IDF Vectors OR with Probability Vectors?

Using Cosine Similarity is a common method to calculate Semantic Textual Similarity. And it is particularly useful when comparing Sentence Embeddings provided by the Universal Sentence Encoder. ...
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7 views

Qunatify total time saved by prioritizing tasks based on the failure rate probability of each task

I am trying to solve a problem where I am trying to prioritize the tasks in a job based on the failure rates of each task. For ex: ...
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24 views

Use distribution probability as a feature in ML model

I built an LSMT model to predict sick cows. I also have risk factors like cow size and height (static risk factor) that I want to combine into the ML model. I found that size is geometrically ...
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20 views

Update of mean and variance of weights

I'm trying to understand the Bayes by Backprop algorithm from the paper Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks, the idea is to make a NN in which each weight has it's own probability distribution. I ...
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Using softmax for multilabel classification (as per Facebook paper)

I came across this paper by some Facebook researchers where they found that using a softmax and CE loss function during training led to improved results over sigmoid + BCE. They do this by changing ...
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29 views

How to model the probability of detecting an image, given it is seen multiple times

Are there any existing methods/models describing the probability of an object being detected by a computer vision algorithm given it is seen $n$ times at similar angles and orientations? I know that ...
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15 views

derivation for expected value for variance

Hi Im taking a course about probability distribution in datascience and below is derivation of the expected value for the variance Variance = expected value of the squared difference from mean for ...
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16 views

What algorithms can handle probabilistic targets?

I have a classification problem where I want to want to use probabilities instead of classes to train my model to learn to output probabilities. In my dataset, I have instances where the probabilities ...
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28 views

Combining multiple probabilities from a classifier. Propagating probabilities

Let's say I have trained a classifier that classifies images of animals into 10 different classes. And let's say that I have 20 different images of a particular animal and because I know the ...
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32 views

Designing a network for multiclass regression

I'd like to model a continuous conditional probability distribution for two classes on a given data set. eg the height of men and women from a set of inputs. I can train a regression model (DNN, CNN, ...
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9 views

Distance between two time-dependent distribution

In my research, I want to use a meaningful and computationally tractable distance between two time-dependent probability distributions. For stationary distributions, several distance measures are used,...
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1answer
37 views

Creating a training dataset from analytical solution

I am currently redesigning an inverse problem on an experimental technique, but I am having doubts about how to create a training dataset. Here is the problem I am trying to solve: I have already ...
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Ensemble of different reservoirs (echo state networks)

Suppose I want to do reservoir computing to classify the input to the proper category (e.g. recognizing a handwritten letter). Ideally, after training a single reservoir and testing it, there would be ...
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Calculating classification metrics when “true” label is also generated by another classification model

I have a binary classification model $A$ and want to calculate its precision and recall for positive and negative classes. The "ground truth" or "true" labels for this model are ...
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10 views

different scored probability distributions for a classification model using python vs Azure ML Studio

I have a classification model which I initially built in Azure ML studio and then created a similar model in python (its similar because the algorithms in python VS Azure are a bit different so they ...
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51 views

Interpreting the results of the probabilistic neural networks (Monte Carlo dropout approach)

I have a Keras NN model where I apply the Monte Carlo dropout approach as a predictive method to evaluate the uncertainty of the model outputs. From my research in the probabilistic neural networks, I ...
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Error term in probabilistic interpretation of least squares update rule

I have read in Stanford's CS229 course notes that to justify the least-squares update rule with probability, the following is assumed: $$y^{(i)} = \theta^Tx^{(i)}+\epsilon^{(i)}$$ , where $\epsilon^{(...
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33 views

Compare cross validation values of Bernoulli NB and Multinomial NB

I'm testing the Multinomial NB and Bernoulli NB on my dataset and I'm using the cross validation score to better understand which of the two algorithms work better. This is the first classifier: ...
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1answer
46 views

How to implement conditional probability distribution on set-valued Random variables

I'm trying to implement conditional probability distribution when the events of two RVs are sets. If I try to extrapolate concepts from real or categorical variables to sets things become confusing ...
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44 views

How to set seed for random drawings with Numpy? [closed]

I'm trying to set the seed for a few lines of code in a jupyter notebook. However, when I tried running numpy.random.seed(0) in the initial cell, in the later cells the random generator was not '...
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15 views

Neural Network probabilities problem

I am using machine learnig to measure probability for the outcome of tennis matches. If the winer is 1 that means that p1 won otherwise p2 won. in Columns LG, SVC, RF and NN there are probaiblities ...
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17 views

Classifier Performance - Binomial proportion confidence interval

I am solving a binary classification task. As an output of Random Forest classifier, I get a probability of how sure RF is that class is 0 or a 1. How can I calculate the needed threshold, to be 95% ...
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45 views

What is a distribution-wise asymmetric measure?

I was trying to understand KL-Divergence, $$D_{KL} \langle P(X) \Vert P(Y) \rangle,$$ and was going through its Wikipedia article. It says the following In contrast to variation of information, it is ...
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28 views

Which probability distribution will you use to model outliers?

I was asked this question in a recent interview for the position of a Data Scientist: Which probability distribution will you use to model outliers ? I told him outliers are like rare events which ...
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45 views

R code that gives results like Wolfram Alpha for the expectation of a function of a random variable? [closed]

When I ask Wolfram Alpha to calculate $E[f(X)]$ where $f(x) = e^{-x^2}$ and $X \sim \mathcal{N}(1,4)$, it gives the result $$ E[f(X)] = \frac{1}{3\sqrt[9]{e}} \approx 0.29828, $$ and the following ...
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how to interpret this 'lift chart'? prediction and true labels

i am trying to compare the prediction from my classifcation model and it's true label either 0 or 1. ...
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1answer
23 views

What is the most common practice of generating (X,Y) from an arbitrary CDF or PDF?

So I can generate X from arbitrary CDF F(x) by the procedure above. Can it be generalized to two variables? How, exactly? If not, what's the best way to generate <...
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34 views

Tensorflow Model not returning a Distribution object when having DistributionLambda as last layer in a multitasking model

I am building a TF CNN model that takes a picture as input and has 3 outputs (multitask learning). On one of the output layers, I would like to output a distribution object, ...
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Learn smoothly varying mean and variance of a variable over a 2d domain

For a problem which I am working on at the moment, I'm interested in learning how the mean and variance of some response variable y changes with two independent ...
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2answers
31 views

How to generate a random sample and distribute values based in an probability distribution?

I want to generate a random sample based on this probability distribution: The line is the KDE of the histogram. My random sample will have n values, the value is ...
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18 views

How to find a probability distribution the parameters of which do not impact each other like mean and variance in normal distribution do?

I need to find a probability distribution to fit my data. My data has two important features, duration and activity count. Duration means how long one sequence lasts and activity count means the ...
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1answer
86 views

What is the difference between maximum likelihood hypothesis and maximum a posteriori hypothesis?

I am a student and I am studying machine learning. I am focusing on the concept of Bayesian learning and I have studied the maximum likelihood hypothesis and the maximum a posteriori hypothesis. I ...
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26 views

Separation of two probabilistic distribution: gaussian and exponential

I have a dataset where I highly suspect some correlation by two variables, based on my understanding of the problem. I would have a linear correlation (sort of SVD decomposition or a plane such as $y=...
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What is Probability Fusion on this figure?

I'm reading the paper Few-Shot Semantic Segmentation with Prototype Learning. I have tried to reach the authors, but they don't answer my emails, so I have decided to ask my question here because I ...
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1answer
94 views

Problem understanding probabilistic generative models for classification

I am a student and I am studying machine learning. I am focusing on probabilistic generative models for classification and I am having some troubles understanding this topic. In the slide of my ...
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1answer
89 views

Naive Bayes Denominator clarification

I came across an earlier post that was resolved and had a follow up to it but I couldn't comment because my reputation is under 50. Essentially I am interested in calculating the denominator in Naive ...
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2answers
78 views

How to predict when an appointment will be scheduled?

I have a dataset of tens of thousands of appointments. Appointments have a created date and scheduled date. Something like this: ...
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1answer
59 views

Probability of an event [closed]

How should I go about solving the following problem? If you randomly type a 6-digit number on a note, what is the probability that you can see the same number if you flip your note upside down? How ...
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35 views

Train a model to determine that the probability of an event given a set of features is higher than when given a different set of features [closed]

I have a data set of attempted phone calls. I have a set of features, say, hour of day, and zip code. I have a label indicating whether the callee picked up the phone or not. I want a model to predict ...
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33 views

How do you calculate the probability that a certain number of hyper-parameter combinations contains the optimum combination?

How do you calculate the probability that a certain number of hyper-parameter combinations contains the optimum combination? Side Note: After doing more research, I have decided that Randomized Search ...
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34 views

How to understand Bionomial Theroem and the Recursion Rule?

In this video from EDX, the instructor explains the binomial theorem as: Binomial Theorem: When you calculate $(a + b)^n = a^n + C(1)a^{(n-1)b} + C(2)a^{(n-2)b^2} + ... + C(n-1)ab^{(n-1) + b^n}$ The ...
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Calculating probability from a distribution

I have a histogram/count plots of average time a property is in the market. Given this distribution, I'd like to calculate the probability that a similar property will be leased within 'x # of weeks' ...
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30 views

Wrong result when solving: “chance that two random cards differ in color and value?”

I'm trying to build a simulation for this question: "There are 50 cards of 5 different colors. Each color has cards numbered between 1 to 10. You pick 2 cards at random. What is the probability ...
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59 views

How can i tell if my model is overfitting from the distribution of predicted probabilities?

all, i am training light gradient boosting and have used all of the necessary parameters to help in over fitting.i plot the predicted probabilities (i..e probabililty has cancer) distribution from the ...
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130 views

How to model user choice probability: binary model vs multi class model

Let's say Morpheus has multiple users to offer colored pills(from an infinite set of colored pills), there are in total 3 unique colored pills(red, blue, green) Morpheus can offer. The trick is, ...
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74 views

why does my calibration curve for platts and isotonic have less points than my uncalibrated model?

i train a model using grid search then i use the best parameters from this to define my chosen model. ...
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27 views

What probability distribution would be more appropriate for monthly rate of going to the store?

Part of a model I am making includes the frequency with which people go shopping for a given good (e.g. people on average go to the supermarket some n times a month). I am trying to figure out what ...
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41 views

how classification scores are interpreted?

I would like to know how to interpret classification scores (i am not sure about the word score or probability, please correct me). For example, for a binary classification positive values are ...
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1answer
64 views

Stacked Model performance?

I am currently working with a dataset that seems very easily separable and I have an accuracy of 99% for SVM (NN-98%, RF-98%, DT-96-97% and I have checked for leakage & overfitting). As part of my ...

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