Questions tagged [probability]

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Data-generating probability distribution, probability distribution of a dataset, in ML

In Goodfellow I, Bengio Y, Courville A. Deep learning. MIT press; 2016 Nov 10. http://thuvien.thanglong.edu.vn:8081/dspace/bitstream/DHTL_123456789/4227/1/10.4-1.pdf p. 102 (for example), it is said ...
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How to interpret the transition and feature weights in a Conditional Random Field model?

Conditional Random Fields model have been a popular method for Named Entity Recognition as it accounts for statistical dependencies between entities and can include observed features that can aid with ...
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F-test for comparing the mean of two groups

What would be the procedure, in terms of F-test, if I would like to check if the mean of one group is greater than the other group (alternative hypothesis: $\mu_1 > \mu_2$)? And also what would ...
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Build model to get daily probability of meeting a certain end of period goal

I was hoping for some consultation and direction with how to go about the following: To give context, I work for an agency that manages advertisements on social media for general motors - ...
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45 views

Seeking advice on knowledge discovery

Background Information I work for a fire department in Florida and the fire chief posed a question to me; At any given moment in time during the calendar year 2018, how many fire trucks are busy, ...
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36 views

How do I properly write scipy.stats.binom.cdf() details

I need to calculate the probability of my random variable being $\le 0$. It's a binomial distribution, $10000$ trials, probability of success is $\frac{10}{19}$ (roughly $0.53$). How do I properly ...
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11 views

What's the correct/preferred way of determining the final class from seq2seq softmax probabilities?

Here's an example, between three classes a, b and c and their softmax probabilities from an imagined seq2seq algorithm. In this case it's pretty obvious that class c is the most likely single label ...
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41 views

How can I make ROC and compute AUC?

I created a boosting tree and got the probability for each tuple in my testing set. But I'm confused on how to combine each probability. Can someone tell me how to combine the probabilities?
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How should I visualize image choice rankings and probabilities?

I need some help visualizing some data from a choice experiment. There were two sets of pictures that folks get to see. The first set contains 6 pictures. Participants pick their top two (based on ...
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10 views

create joint prob distribution or empirical relation for two variables

There are two variables, X1 and X2. The experimental study shows that they are highly correlated. Are there any reliable ways to create an empirical mapping(or equation) between X1 and X2. Assuming ...
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6 views

Confidence vs. Count in association rule mining: which one is better?

I am writing a program that mines association rules from a large data set. I have an array of association rules, and I have to decide which ones are more representative of the patterns I am studying. ...
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19 views

How is the standard deviation of VAE's obtained?

I am trying to build a Variational Autoencoder. I was looking at various codes online and found most of them in some way or another copy Francois Chollet (Google researchers) code. Now my main ...
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Predict how many days late or early someone will finish their work

So I have a set of deadlines and people, with a database of when those people finished their previous work and how much after the deadline it was, as well as when the work was given. The work itself ...
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1answer
34 views

Very low probability in naive Bayes classifier 1

I have some training data (TRAIN) and some test data (TEST). Each row of each table contains an observed class (X) and some columns of binary (Y). I'm using a Python script that is intended to predict ...
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20 views

Probabilistic guarantees for SQL query execution

We are working on a project that tries to accelerate Spark SQL using dedicated hardware. Our approach works much better (in terms of the resulting latency) if we allow query processing that is only ...
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42 views

Various Distances between probability distributions

I was reading about different distribution distance - and came across Kullback-Leibler divergence, Jensen-Shannon divergence, MMD, and Wasserstein distance - the book was too abstract for me to absorb....
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Probabilistic Machine Learning model to match spatial data

I have spatial data from multiple sources. This data consists of ID, lat, long, and time. My goal is that given a new lat-long, the model needs to return (preferably with a probability) the data ...
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132 views

Why does a belief network need to be represented using a directed acyclic graph (DAG)?

I would have thought that it's because DAGs preserve the dependency relationships between the variables, but I am currently unsure. Thanks
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2answers
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Why do people use CrossEntropyLoss and not just a softmax probability as the loss?

I don't understand why one would add additional complexity to log, probabilities for the loss function of a classification Neural Network. What benefit does that have, as opposed to just using the 0-1....
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Why prior in MAP could be ignored?

A posterior $p(\theta\vert x) = \frac{p(x \vert \theta)p(\theta)}{p(x)} $ Many materials say that since the $p(x)$ is a constant, the $p(x)$ can be ignored. Thus, $p(\theta\vert x) \propto p(x \vert ...
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How to make machine learning model that reports ambiguity of the input?

Suppose I want to build a neural network regression model that takes one input and return one output. Here's the training data: ...
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1answer
23 views

Marginalization of joint distribution

I am trying to understand how you marginalise a joint distribution. In my case I have a fair coin, $P(C) = \frac12$ and a fair dice $P(D) = \frac16$. I am told I win a prize if I flip the coin and ...
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How to elegantly caclulate probability distribution parameters for a particular random variable given some observed data?

I am using bnlearn package and R to learn Bayesian Network structure and also fit it using Maximum Likelihood estimation(MLE). bn.fit uses MLE to learn[as i understand] a generalized probability ...
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1answer
49 views

Using classifier's probabilities as independent variables to predict Y

Suppose you have a classification task y~X with (n_samples,m_features). A colleague told me that it is correct to run r different classifiers to predict y based on X and then use the probabilities ...
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Wavenet joint probability

As presented in the first article of Google Wavenet (https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.03499.pdf) the model can approximate the joint probability of the whole sequence (raw audio waveform) using the chain ...
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1answer
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Layman's description of PDF and CDF [closed]

Can anyone please explain what a PDF and CDF are in simple words. (Please don't define it from wiki.)
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26 views

Probability Distribution of the Process Duration Time based on the Process Status Measurements

I have data of execution of several processes. Each execution is identified by the process_id. The duration of the execution is measured by external agents, testing ...
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xgboost or lightgbm to handle Binomial problems

I have a dataset containing a column of trials, a column of successes and other features; and, obviously, I can generate a probability column. I would like to use gradient boosting methods (like ...
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1answer
198 views

How to get probabilities values with keras?

tensorflow version = '1.12.0' keras version = '2.1.6-tf' I'm using keras with tensorflow backend. I want to get the probabilities values of the prediction. I want the probabilities to sum up to 1. ...
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22 views

How to optimize function built on top of the classifier?

I have a dataset with classification model build for it for $n$ classes as target. And also using the probabilities for each class, which classificator returns, I built confidence function for each ...
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1answer
13 views

the probability distribution of dependent variables

There are three variables, X3 is a function of X1 and X2, ...
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1answer
143 views

Loss Function for Probability Regression

I'm trying to predict a probability with a neural network, but having trouble figuring out which loss function is best. Cross entropy was my first thought, but other resources always talk about it in ...
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15 views

How to use SLAM on other sensor other than camera?

I have a sensor that reads electromagnetic field strength from each position. And the field is stable and unique for each position. So the reading is simply a function of the position like this: <...
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To what extent can one link data in a structured or rigorous way, given only partial knowledge base?

I seem to have stumbled on an interesting problem: suppose I am given partial information in two tables, say imports and exports between different countries, and I can query these, but e.g. the ...
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How to determine the rate of entry in a queue M/M/c?

I have the exit rate ($\mu$) and the average waiting time in the queue ($W_q$). I need solve to rate of input ($\lambda$) in a queue. I now: $\rho = \frac{\lambda}{c\mu} < 1$ $\pi_0 = \left[\left(...
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sample n unique items from dataset

I have a dataset that has N of different unique items and each item appears Ai times (every item appears different times). This is mean that I have the ...
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How do I combine two electromagnetic readings to predict the position of a sensor?

I have an electromagnetic sensor and electromagnetic field emitter. The sensor will read power from the emitter. I want to predict the position of the sensor using the reading. Let me simplify the ...
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2answers
56 views

Trying to find the correlation between inputs and output

I have tried the pandas code for trying to find out the correlation between the output and the inputs I am feeding. Here is the code: ...
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Probabilistic search engine user behavior markov models

I am considering the following probabilistic Markov model of actions of a user on the results page of a search engine. The user examines the first result, with a probability $A$ he is satisfied with ...
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2answers
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Predicting missing data. Looking for good data predicting technique

I am analysing data for Countries Trade GDP. Some of the countries have missing GDP value for given a year. However, I have Grand Total for the entire region for that year. Is there a good data ...
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1answer
30 views

Historical weather data with machine learning? [closed]

My company gave me a task to build some weather forecasting. I have now historical weather data for 10 years (temperature, precipitation in mm, humidity and etc. more than 30 features total). We need ...
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51 views

Do I need to correct predict_proba by training fraction?

Many algorithms provide a predict_proba function indicating probability of a case to belong to that class (e.g. https://scikit-learn.org/stable/modules/generated/...
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How to predict unknown(hidden) value by incomplete value or partly recorded value

Let me make it clear by make an example: Suppose I knew a person's cost each month for 3 years like: 2016Jan : $2500 2016Feb : $4000 2016Mar : $3500 ... Just according to this, can I ...
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Comparing two sets of exponential data T(t)=−e^(−kt)

I have two sets of exponential data (temperature measurements) of the form: $T(t)=−e^{(−kt)}$. $k$ is a constant that determines the rate of temperature change. 1 temperature measurement was taken ...
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1answer
26 views

Extending DTW 1-NN Classification to On-line Scenario

I am familiar with Dynamic Time Warping classification using a 1-nearest neighbour approach. However, in most benchmark datasets and applications, it used ex-post, i.e. classifying a time series after ...
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1answer
33 views

objective in policy gradient equation?

I don't understand how this was deduced from first equation to second expectation. Is it from conditional probability theory? I checked but still can't understand. From wikipedia, the expectation of a ...
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2answers
70 views

Maximum likelihood estimation vs calculating distribution parameters “manually”

I'm sorry for asking probably elementary question, but I cannot understand how estimating probability distribution parameters using maximum likelihood estimation method differs from calculating these ...
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1answer
26 views

Statistical machine translation word alignment for FR-ENG and ENG-FR: what is p(e) and p(f)?

I'm currently trying to implement this paper, but am struggling to understand some of the math here. I'm pretty sure I understand how to implement the E-step, but for the M-step, I'm confused on how ...
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1answer
72 views

Capturing movement importance - logistic regression output

I'm studying some event for a set of objects that can be plotted on a square $[0, 100] ^ 2$. I have used logistic regression to calculate probabilities that event occur for different objects and the ...
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1answer
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Can someone please explain what this sample function is upto?

So there is a function in Dino_Name_Generator at Deeplearning.ai notebook ...