# Questions tagged [probability]

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true.

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### Modeling the influence of events order on probability

The case is to model if the sequence of events influences the probability of binary target variable. We have for example five different events which occur in time (event: A,B,C,D,E). They can occur in ...
201 views

### Compare cross validation values of Bernoulli NB and Multinomial NB

I'm testing the Multinomial NB and Bernoulli NB on my dataset and I'm using the cross validation score to better understand which of the two algorithms work better. This is the first classifier: ...
608 views

### Odds vs Likelihood

Odds is the chance of an event occurring against the event not occurring. Likelihood is the probability of a set of parameters being supported by the data in hand. In logistic regression, we use log ...
286 views

### Threshold tuning with one-vs-rest for multi classification python

I’m currently using a One vs Rest Random forest algorithm for multi class classification problem using Python, and I want to find the optimal threshold for each class, How can I do this with OVR (One-...
3k views

### Loss Function for Probability Regression

I am trying to predict a probability with a neural network, but having trouble figuring out which loss function is best. Cross entropy was my first thought, but other resources always talk about it in ...
46 views

### Why Maximum Likelihood Estimation for normal distribution?

Since we can compute the mean and the standard deviation of a set of random variables, why do we use Maximum Likelihood Estimation to estimate these parameters?
31 views

### Looking for suggestions on how to distinguish between two different distributions in my data when no labels are available

My data consists of medical claims from thousands of providers across the country. The data contains how much they were paid for each service they performed and how many units of each service they ...
11 views

### Understanding the calculations of bayesian classification rule given features with known distribution

I have some difficulties using the Bayes rule and the calculations used for estimation of a given class in a classification task if we know the distribution (and its parameters) of the feature vector: ...
1 vote
105 views

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### How is Probability Used in Data Science? [closed]

This is my first Question so apologies if I do not stick to the standards. What I want to understand is how is all of the following topics: Probability Different Probability Distributions. Baye's ...
1 vote
36 views

### Calculationg perplexity (in natural language processing) manually

I am trying to understand Perplexity within Natural Language Processing as a metric more fully. And I am doing so by creating manual examples to understand all the component parts. Is the following ...
11 views

### Is there any formula for finding the smallest no. of chapters needed to be learnt for an exam/test, based on the number of questions they can ask?

I understand that this is a highly unconventional and specific question, so bear with me. Also, this is my first time using the site, so be a little lenient with the downvotes. I want to know if there ...
33 views

### Good models for predicting whether a customer would make a purchase given details like age, gender, ethnicity, salary, etc?

I have around 30,000 data points and for those data points I have some numerical fields like customer_age, ...