People who code: we want your input. Take the Survey

Questions tagged [probability]

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true.

242 questions
Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
131 views

How to model user choice probability: binary model vs multi class model

Let's say Morpheus has multiple users to offer colored pills(from an infinite set of colored pills), there are in total 3 unique colored pills(red, blue, green) Morpheus can offer. The trick is, ...
82 views

why does my calibration curve for platts and isotonic have less points than my uncalibrated model?

i train a model using grid search then i use the best parameters from this to define my chosen model. ...
27 views

What probability distribution would be more appropriate for monthly rate of going to the store?

Part of a model I am making includes the frequency with which people go shopping for a given good (e.g. people on average go to the supermarket some n times a month). I am trying to figure out what ...
47 views

how classification scores are interpreted?

I would like to know how to interpret classification scores (i am not sure about the word score or probability, please correct me). For example, for a binary classification positive values are ...
74 views

Stacked Model performance?

I am currently working with a dataset that seems very easily separable and I have an accuracy of 99% for SVM (NN-98%, RF-98%, DT-96-97% and I have checked for leakage & overfitting). As part of my ...
19 views

using logistic:binary as objective in xgboost

i am using 'binary:logisitic' as my objective function in xgboost classifier. Therefore when i predict probabilities i.e: model.predict_proba(x_test)[:, 1] will ...
63 views

Lower loss always better for Probabilistic loss functions?

I am working on an neural net int Tensorflow that predicts percentages for win, draw, loss for given data of a game. The labels I provide are always {1, 0, 0}, {0, 1, 0} or {0, 0, 1}. After some ...
75 views

how can i plot probability distribution of my classes in the way below?

All, I would like to plot the following: I have a binary classification problem where I am using xgboost as my 'model' below: ...
19 views

how can i interpret kernel density plots from classification?

all, i have a classification problem where i am predicting likelihood of client defaulting on loan. i plotted the predicted probabilities from my model, and then plotted against the label '1' for ...
73 views

Evaluation of Mixture Density Networks

I have programmed an Mixture Density Network model to a market price. As input I have many numerical and categorical properties. The output of the network is a probability distribution (shape, ...
268 views

Understanding output probabilites of xgboost in multiclass problems

I would like to understand the output probabilities of a xgboost classifier (or any other decision tree ensemble based classifier) in the case of a multiclass problem. For example: We have 5 different ...
75 views

Probability of Gaussian Naive Bayes

How would I go about attaching a probability to the prediction outputted by a Gaussian Naive Bayes model ? I'm asking because the predict_proba function U can use with sklearn's Gaussian Naive Bayes ...
62 views

Notation for features (general notation for continuous and discrete random variables)

I'm looking for the right notation for features from different types. Let us say that my samples as $m$ features that can be modeled with $X_1,...,X_m$. The features Don't share the same distribution (...
574 views

What is the concept of Normalized Mutual Information in the evaluation of Clustering?

I know what mutual information basically is but not quite sure about why and how it is used in the context of evaluation of clustering mechanisms ? Can someone please explain the intuition behind it ? ...
24 views

What are the different models I can use to find the gender affinity of businesses using yelp dataset-- https://www.kaggle.com/yelp-dataset/yelp-dataset . I need to find Probablity (Male buying from a ...
22 views

How do data scientists reason under ambiguity? [closed]

I am looking for real-wrold examples of how data scientists build models and make decisions under situations of extreme ambiguity as described by Cassie Kozyrkov here: A decision under ambiguity ...
684 views

Fitting a pandas dataframe to a Poisson Distribution

I have a simple dataframe df2 that consist of indices and one column of values. I want to fit this dataframe to a poisson distribution. Below is the code I am using: ...
179 views

how to compute bernoulli entropy?

I am reading gail implementation code in openai baselines. they compute bernoulli entropy as one of the loss in adversary network loss function. In their code, they implement bernoulli entropy as ...
207 views

why we sample when predicting with Recurent Neural Network

I trained a Recurrent Neural Network to predict the next word in a sentence. I trained and now I want to predict, but there is something I am not getting well. I saw it in many tutorials even in the ...
36 views

563 views

Implementation explanation for predict_proba in RandomForestClassifier- sklearn

Attached is an extract from the RandomForestClassifier documentation of sklearn. The last line,"The class probabilities of a single tree is the fraction of samples of the same class in a leaf." is ...
414 views

Predict_proba() probabilities distribution [closed]

I’m trying to calculate probability of class 1. I’m using gradients boosting (catboost classifier) Is it normal to have an equal rate of positive classes in every predict_proba() bucket? e.g.: [...
18 views

Is using cross-entropy enough to ensure the output is a distribution probability?

I am following along https://pytorch.org/tutorials/beginner/finetuning_torchvision_models_tutorial.html. In this code, the last layers of the pretrained networks are linear. The loss used in this ...
291 views

i have an imbalance data set and I used smote to oversample the minority class and undersample the majority class. now, I want to check the test AUC using predict_proba of the model. I have two ...
126 views

Statistical loss function for categorical distributions

For training an autoencoder model whose outputs (and inputs) are parameters from a categorical distribution $[q_1, q_2, \ldots, q_n]$, I have to define a proper loss function measuring the distance ...