People who code: we want your input. Take the Survey

# Questions tagged [probability]

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true.

242 questions
Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
2answers
131 views

### How to model user choice probability: binary model vs multi class model

Let's say Morpheus has multiple users to offer colored pills(from an infinite set of colored pills), there are in total 3 unique colored pills(red, blue, green) Morpheus can offer. The trick is, ...
1answer
82 views

### why does my calibration curve for platts and isotonic have less points than my uncalibrated model?

i train a model using grid search then i use the best parameters from this to define my chosen model. ...
1answer
27 views

### What probability distribution would be more appropriate for monthly rate of going to the store?

Part of a model I am making includes the frequency with which people go shopping for a given good (e.g. people on average go to the supermarket some n times a month). I am trying to figure out what ...
2answers
47 views

### how classification scores are interpreted?

I would like to know how to interpret classification scores (i am not sure about the word score or probability, please correct me). For example, for a binary classification positive values are ...
1answer
74 views

### Stacked Model performance?

I am currently working with a dataset that seems very easily separable and I have an accuracy of 99% for SVM (NN-98%, RF-98%, DT-96-97% and I have checked for leakage & overfitting). As part of my ...
0answers
19 views

### using logistic:binary as objective in xgboost

i am using 'binary:logisitic' as my objective function in xgboost classifier. Therefore when i predict probabilities i.e: model.predict_proba(x_test)[:, 1] will ...
2answers
63 views

### Lower loss always better for Probabilistic loss functions?

I am working on an neural net int Tensorflow that predicts percentages for win, draw, loss for given data of a game. The labels I provide are always {1, 0, 0}, {0, 1, 0} or {0, 0, 1}. After some ...
0answers
75 views

### how can i plot probability distribution of my classes in the way below?

All, I would like to plot the following: I have a binary classification problem where I am using xgboost as my 'model' below: ...
1answer
19 views

### how can i interpret kernel density plots from classification?

all, i have a classification problem where i am predicting likelihood of client defaulting on loan. i plotted the predicted probabilities from my model, and then plotted against the label '1' for ...
0answers
73 views

### Evaluation of Mixture Density Networks

I have programmed an Mixture Density Network model to a market price. As input I have many numerical and categorical properties. The output of the network is a probability distribution (shape, ...
1answer
268 views

### Understanding output probabilites of xgboost in multiclass problems

I would like to understand the output probabilities of a xgboost classifier (or any other decision tree ensemble based classifier) in the case of a multiclass problem. For example: We have 5 different ...
1answer
75 views

### Probability of Gaussian Naive Bayes

How would I go about attaching a probability to the prediction outputted by a Gaussian Naive Bayes model ? I'm asking because the predict_proba function U can use with sklearn's Gaussian Naive Bayes ...
2answers
62 views

### Notation for features (general notation for continuous and discrete random variables)

I'm looking for the right notation for features from different types. Let us say that my samples as $m$ features that can be modeled with $X_1,...,X_m$. The features Don't share the same distribution (...
1answer
574 views

### What is the concept of Normalized Mutual Information in the evaluation of Clustering?

I know what mutual information basically is but not quite sure about why and how it is used in the context of evaluation of clustering mechanisms ? Can someone please explain the intuition behind it ? ...
1answer
24 views

### Finding gender affinity for businesses

What are the different models I can use to find the gender affinity of businesses using yelp dataset-- https://www.kaggle.com/yelp-dataset/yelp-dataset . I need to find Probablity (Male buying from a ...
0answers
22 views

### How do data scientists reason under ambiguity? [closed]

I am looking for real-wrold examples of how data scientists build models and make decisions under situations of extreme ambiguity as described by Cassie Kozyrkov here: A decision under ambiguity ...
1answer
684 views

### Fitting a pandas dataframe to a Poisson Distribution

I have a simple dataframe df2 that consist of indices and one column of values. I want to fit this dataframe to a poisson distribution. Below is the code I am using: ...
1answer
179 views

### how to compute bernoulli entropy?

I am reading gail implementation code in openai baselines. they compute bernoulli entropy as one of the loss in adversary network loss function. In their code, they implement bernoulli entropy as ...
2answers
207 views

### why we sample when predicting with Recurent Neural Network

I trained a Recurrent Neural Network to predict the next word in a sentence. I trained and now I want to predict, but there is something I am not getting well. I saw it in many tutorials even in the ...
0answers
36 views

1answer
563 views

### Implementation explanation for predict_proba in RandomForestClassifier- sklearn

Attached is an extract from the RandomForestClassifier documentation of sklearn. The last line,"The class probabilities of a single tree is the fraction of samples of the same class in a leaf." is ...
1answer
414 views

### Predict_proba() probabilities distribution [closed]

I’m trying to calculate probability of class 1. I’m using gradients boosting (catboost classifier) Is it normal to have an equal rate of positive classes in every predict_proba() bucket? e.g.: [...
0answers
18 views

### Is using cross-entropy enough to ensure the output is a distribution probability?

I am following along https://pytorch.org/tutorials/beginner/finetuning_torchvision_models_tutorial.html. In this code, the last layers of the pretrained networks are linear. The loss used in this ...
1answer
291 views

### Adjust predicted probability after smote

i have an imbalance data set and I used smote to oversample the minority class and undersample the majority class. now, I want to check the test AUC using predict_proba of the model. I have two ...
0answers
126 views

### Statistical loss function for categorical distributions

For training an autoencoder model whose outputs (and inputs) are parameters from a categorical distribution $[q_1, q_2, \ldots, q_n]$, I have to define a proper loss function measuring the distance ...
0answers
35 views

### Why Maximum Likelihood Estimation for normal distribution?

Since we can compute the mean and the standard deviation of a set of random variables, why do we use Maximum Likelihood Estimation to estimate these parameters?
2answers
73 views

### What is the meaning of “probability distribution of p(x)” of something uncountable?

I'm studying VAE and new to both of the neural network and the statistic. After some researches, I could understand the rough concept of VAE. But what makes me confused is, the meaning of probability ...