I liked the way you put across your question!

I think we cannot cannot say in specific will work well with data, it is most likely trial & error method, If ARIMA is not performing well and assuming that there is no trend in data then you can use **AR, Exponential Smoothening**. These are basic techniques but as you know in many scenarios basic models can explain better than complex models.

These both works well in such scenarios. Give a try.

It would be nice if you can share some graphs which can explain us a bit more about the how the data is, noise etc.
I mean if you have anything from your exploratory analysis.

Hope my answer is helpful!