I am afraid that such situations are fundamentally inherent in predicting/forecasting contexts; quoting from the very recent paper by Taleb et al., *On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables* ([open access][1], para 3.7): > **3.7. Forecasts can result in adjustments that make forecasts less accurate** > > It is obvious that if forecasts lead to adjustments, and responses > that affect the studied phenomenon, then one can no longer judge these > forecasts on their subsequent accuracy. So, other than **communicating this clearly beforehand** and reaching an agreement on how the predictions will be assessed in the presence of such adjustments, there is not much else you can do from a modelling or methodology perspective, except perhaps re-framing the whole problem according to the advice suggested further in the same paragraph quoted above: > In that sense a forecast can be a warning of the style “if you do not act, these are the costs”. [1]: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207020301230